The HWWI Commodity Price Index rose once again
(Hamburg) In April, the HWWI commodity price index rose by an average of 3.9 % (in euros: +4.5 %) over the previous month. The HWWI commodity price index rose to 123.8 points (in euros: 122.2 points) and was thus 3.6% (in euros: +5.3%) lower (in euros: higher) than in April of last year. The index for energy resources rose once again in April, rising by 4.4 % (in euro: +5.0 %). As in the two previous months, the price of crude oil rose, while the prices of the other two energy commodities fell again on average over the month. The average price of crude oil rose by 7.4 % in April (in euros: +8.0 %). The index for industrial resources was able to achieve slight gains and an increase of 0.9 % (in euro: +1.4 %) compared with the previous month. Compared to March, the index for food and beverages fell less sharply in April. Average food and beverage prices fell moderately by 0.7% (in euros: -0.1%). After falling in March without energy, the index rose by 0.4% in April (in euros: +0.9%).
Index for energy resources: +4.4 % (in Euro: +5.0 %)
Compared with the previous month, the average monthly price of crude oil rose in April by 7.4% (in euros: +8.0%) to 68.77 US dollars (in euros: 61.20) per barrel. The OPEC+ postponed its meeting scheduled for 17 and 18 April to 25 and 26 June 2019, because current geopolitical and economic developments would currently burden forecasts of future demand volumes and supply on the crude oil market with too much uncertainty. The agreements reached last December to reduce production volumes therefore continue to apply. The goal of ending the fall in prices on the crude oil market has been achieved since January 2019, since crude oil prices have shown an upward trend since then. Once again, the largest price increase was observed for the US crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI). WTI rose by 9.6% (in euros: +10.2%). WTI’s price is still below the April 2018 price and costs 4.1% less on a monthly average (more in euros: +4.8%). European Brent crude oil rose by 6.7% (in euros: +7.4%) and the price of Dubai crude oil from the Middle East rose by 6.2% (in euros: +6.8%).
Natural gas prices fell again. On a monthly average, the average price of natural gas fell by 10.1% (in euros: -9.6%). European natural gas in particular repeatedly fell in price. The price of European natural gas fell by 14.1 % (in euros: -13.6 %) and thus by a similar amount as in the previous month. On a monthly average, the price of US natural gas fell by 7.0 % (in euros: -6.5 %). The monthly average price of coal fell significantly. Australian and South African coal prices fell similarly sharply. Coal prices fell by 11.8 % on average in April (-11.3 % in euro terms). Overall, the index for energy resources rose by 4.4 % (in euros: +5.0 %) to 125.9 points (in euros: 124.3 points). Once again, the rise in crude oil prices compensated for the price declines of the other two fossil fuels.
Index for industrial resources: +0.9 % (in Euro: +1.4 %)
The index for industrial resources is divided into the index for agricultural resources, the index for non-ferrous metals and the index for iron ore and steel scrap. In April, the monthly average index for agricultural commodities fell by 3.2% (-2.6% in euro terms). The price of sawn timber fell particularly sharply. Demand is being adversely affected by another cold spell, as this is delaying already planned construction projects in the USA. In addition, the report by the US Department of Housing and Urban Affairs and the Department of Trade and Industry, which was delayed by the government shutdown, was published. Sawn timber will fall in price by 11.9 % (in euros: -11.4 %).
In April, falling prices could be observed for almost all base metals, after they had shown a rising price trend in the last two months. The zinc price was the only base metal price to rise by an average of 2.9% per month (in euros: +3.5%). The price of copper fell by 0.1% (+0.4% in euro terms). Nickel fell by 2.0% (-1.4% in euro terms), tin prices fell by 3.6% (-3.0% in euro terms) and lead prices fell by 5.2% (-4.7% in euro terms). Overall, the index for non-ferrous metals fell by 1.0 % (in euro: -0.5 %). The index for iron ore and steel scrap rose by an average of 6.2% per month (in euro: +6.8%), with steel scrap again becoming cheaper. High Chinese demand and supply problems in Brazil caused iron ore prices to rise. Steel scrap prices fell by 8.3% (in euros: -7.8%). The already weak demand is additionally burdened by the US-American punitive tariffs on steel products. Overall, the index for industrial resources rose by an average of 0.9% (1.4% in euros) to 127.4 points (125.8 points in euros).
Index for food and beverages: -0.7 % (in euro: -0.1 %)
The average monthly price of coffee fell by 3.2% (in euros: -2.6%). By contrast, cocoa and tea prices rose. The price of cocoa rose by 6.0% (in euros: +6.6%). Although cocoa crop yields rose, rising demand, especially from China, caused the cocoa price to rise in April. The price of tea rose by 5.1% (in euros: +5.7%). Expectations for crop yields are falling due to a dry weather in Kenya. At the same time, demand for tea is rising as countries such as Egypt, the UK, Pakistan, Russia and Afghanistan import more tea from India. The monthly average index for food and beverages fell moderately by 0.7 % (in euros: -0.1 %) to 86.9 points (in euros: 85.8 points).