HWWI Commodity Price Index Declines in September
- HHWWI overall index falls by 3.9 % (US dollar basis)
- Price index for natural gas falls by 3.6
- Price index for industrial raw materials declines by 5.9
(Hamburg, October 10, 2022) Compared with the previous month, the HWWI commodity price index fell by a total of 3.9% in September. Except for the sub-index for food, beverages and tobacco (+0.3%), all segments of the overall index fell. The sharpest decline was in industrial raw materials (-5.9%). However, energy commodities also fell by 4%.
“The situation on the commodity markets continues to be largely determined by the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. In some markets, for example crude oil and industrial raw materials, the initial price-driving effect due to shortages and speculative overshooting of demand in the initial phase of the war is now being curbed by gloomier growth prospects. This is having a dampening effect on prices,” says Marina Eurich, commodities expert at the HWWI.
Index for energy commodities: Oil price continues to decline, gas slightly cheaper than in previous month
As in previous months, the price of crude oil fell again in September, by 7.5%. This still leaves the price 21.1% higher than in September 2021.
After falling slightly in August, the price of coal rose again by 6.3% in September. It was thus 128.4% higher than in the same month a year earlier.
After a significant jump of over 40% in August, the price of gas declined slightly in September, falling by a comparatively moderate 3.6%. Year-on-year, it was 106.3% higher than in September 2021. After the sharp gas price rises of recent months, filled gas storage facilities and recessionary trends are likely to have reduced price pressure for the time being, especially on the US market.
Overall, the energy commodities sub-index rose by 4.0% (euro basis: -1.9%) in September to 392.4 points (euro basis: 454.3 points).
Industrial Commodities Index: Continuing trend toward falling prices
The sub-index for industrial raw materials is divided into the index for agricultural raw materials, the index for non-ferrous metals and the index for iron ore and steel scrap. All three sub-indices decreased in September, so that the index for industrial raw materials fell by 5.9% overall. The trend of the previous months thus continued.
In the area of agricultural raw materials, the comparatively sharp decline in prices for spinning fabrics (-9.8%) is striking. Demand for cotton is highly cyclical due to its use in textiles. Falling demand for consumer goods is possibly causing prices to fall here, as producers are also adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
Overall, the easing of the situation in industrial raw material prices, which has been ongoing for several months, is continuing. The index for industrial raw materials is now 14.9% lower than a year earlier.
Overall, the index for industrial raw materials fell by an average of 5.9% (euro basis: 3.8%) to 120.4 points in September (euro basis: 139.1 points).
Index for food, beverages and tobacco almost stable
The subindex for food, beverages and tobacco was virtually stable in September. It rose by 0.3%, having fallen in each of the three previous months. The value was thus 16.9% higher than the corresponding year-earlier figure for September 2021.
Overall, the index for food, beverages and tobacco rose by an average of 0.3% for the month (euro basis: 2.5%) and stood at 159.2 points (euro basis: 183.6 points).
Source: www.hwwi.org