Author: Dr. Stephan Hofstetter, Partner at Kloepfel Consulting.
Challenges for supply chains
Geopolitical tensions are intensifying. Key triggers lie in the relationship between China and Taiwan and, more generally, in China’s power-conscious posturing. The U.S. is responding with increased export restrictions to make it more difficult for China to access leading technology. The question is whether and how companies can strategically prepare for escalation scenarios in purchasing.
Beijing is prepared to force Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland by violent means if necessary. In the Western economy, these military threatening gestures are incorporated into risk management in advance.
In the last 20 years, China has risen to become a strong trading partner. The most important trading partners for China are Japan, South Korea, the United States, Germany, and Australia, with trade volumes ranging from about $150 billion to $640 billion each. The three main commodity groups in import are electronics, machinery and petroleum products. For exports, the main commodity groups are electronics, machinery and textiles. From the perspective of Japan, South Korea, the USA, Taiwan and Germany, China is also the most important trading partner in each case.
Taiwan plays a significant role in Western industry, especially as the world’s most important chip supplier. For Taiwan, the most important trading partners for electronics, raw materials, machinery and vehicles are China, the USA and Japan.. An escalating conflict would affect the entire global economy.
In electronics, value-added processes are globalized and internationally networked. The U.S. government is therefore pressuring Western countries with leading technology in the semiconductor industry to restrict exports to China. The Netherlands, with ASML, the world’s leading equipment manufacturer for semiconductors, as well as Japan and South Korea are affected first. China could quickly fall behind technologically, but its trading partners Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands would also be severely affected economically.
The dependencies on China go far beyond electronic components. Important key technologies of the future, such as photovoltaics, are dominated by China in the supply chain from raw materials to final components.
The EU Chip Act is a European Union initiative to promote the semiconductor industry in Europe. The initiative aims to promote the expansion of European semiconductor production and research in order to reduce dependence on imported semiconductors from other countries and strengthen Europe’s digital sovereignty.
Zudem würde der Konflikt die globale Transportlogistik massiv stören. Die Seestraße von Taiwan ist eine Moreover, the conflict would massively disrupt global transportation logistics. The Taiwan Strait is an important shipping route between the countries of Northeast Asia and the countries of Southeast Asia, connecting the Pacific Ocean with the South China Sea. The South China Sea is an important hub for international trade and has strategic importance for the region. It is one of the busiest sea lanes in the world and connects the major trading regions of Asia, including China, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia. In addition, the coastal states on the South China Sea are important trading partners for other countries, including the United States and Europe. Security and stability in the region are of great importance to international trade and economic development. Conflict or tension in this region can disrupt trade flows and affect the global economy.
Part 1: Geopolitical risks – challenges for supply chains
Part 2: Measures to address supply risks
Part 3: Checklist: 6 steps to avert supply risks
Risk management in procurement
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Contact Dr. Stephan Hofstetter, Partner at Kloepfel Consulting, for a first phone call or web meeting by e-mail s.hofstetter@kloepfel-consulting.com or by phone +49 211 941 984 33